Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +16.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Zegras 41.5% (+16.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 87.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 96.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 95.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 94.4%
94.4%
5.6%
Matthews
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Matthews
Zegras
Last 5: Matthews 5-0 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Zegras
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
39.4% (510)
+16.9%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
47.1% (34)
+10.4%
On even strength, Matthews has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Zegras is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Matthews
Zegras
Home
60.7% (572)
42.3% (272)
Away
52.4% (657)
37.5% (272)
By Period
Matthews
Zegras
P1
60.3%
37.6%
P2
55.6%
41.5%
P3
53.3%
40.8%
OT
45.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
64.0%▲
60.5%
56.2%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
39.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 11:16 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 07:11 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 00:48 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 00:37 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 28, 2021 | 1 | 07:58 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |