Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +26.8% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Zegras 37.0% (+26.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 66.5%
Defensive zone
Matthews 82.6%
Neutral zone
Matthews 70.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Matthews
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Matthews
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Matthews
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
33.0% (264)
+26.8%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
32.1% (56)
+32.8%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
50.0% (2)
+6.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +32.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Zegras is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Matthews
Zegras
Home
60.0% (520)
35.3% (173)
Away
59.3% (452)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Matthews
Zegras
P1
60.2%
33.0%
P2
58.2%
35.7%
P3
60.4%
29.7%
OT
70.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.6%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 17:34 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |