Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Zegras 42.6% (+11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 75.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 70.9%
Neutral zone
Matthews 79.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 70.9%
70.9%
29.1%
Matthews
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Matthews
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
41.1% (559)
+11.6%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
50.0% (12)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
50.0% (2)
+25.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Matthews is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Matthews shoots left. Zegras is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Matthews
Zegras
Home
54.8% (515)
45.7% (247)
Away
50.2% (534)
38.0% (326)
By Period
Matthews
Zegras
P1
54.4%
45.5%
P2
50.4%
36.8%
P3
51.8%
41.1%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
37.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
64.0%▲
60.5%
52.4%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 17:33 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |