Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +20.2% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Zegras 41.3% (+20.2%)
Offensive zone
Zegras 53.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 75.6%
Neutral zone
Zegras 53.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Matthews
Zegras
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
36.5% (156)
+21.8%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
40.7% (27)
+15.0%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
0.0% (3)
+50.7%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +50.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Zegras is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (138).
Home / Away
Matthews
Zegras
Home
59.1% (528)
38.9% (113)
Away
55.1% (695)
32.9% (73)
By Period
Matthews
Zegras
P1
56.2%
40.0%
P2
58.1%
38.1%
P3
56.4%
31.6%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
45.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
64.0%▲
60.5%
56.8%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
36.6%