Scouting Report
Blake Lizotte holds a +17.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lizotte on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.0% vs Zegras 37.0% (+17.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 73.2%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 95.0%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 85.5%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 70.8%
70.8%
29.2%
Lizotte
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Lizotte
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Lizotte
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
3
0
Lizotte
Zegras
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (342)
33.0% (264)
+19.9%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
32.1% (56)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (130)
50.0% (2)
-6.9%
On even strength, Lizotte has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Lizotte is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Lizotte shoots left. Zegras is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Zegras
Home
44.2% (242)
35.3% (173)
Away
56.0% (234)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Lizotte
Zegras
P1
49.6%
33.0%
P2
46.9%
35.7%
P3
52.6%
29.7%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.0%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 09:21 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 03:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 05:36 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |