Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (38.8% vs 38.9%). Marchand wins 36.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 40.3% vs Zegras 39.5% (-0.1%)
Offensive zone
Zegras 50.2%
Defensive zone
Zegras 50.9%
Neutral zone
Marchand 52.4%
Result
Brad Marchand favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Marchand
Zegras
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
36.6% (473)
39.0% (1,703)
-2.4%
Power Play
49.3% (146)
38.5% (148)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
31.8% (66)
25.0% (8)
+6.8%
On power play, Marchand has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Marchand is 36.4% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Marchand shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
Marchand
Zegras
Home
39.9% (363)
40.5% (908)
Away
37.6% (322)
37.3% (951)
By Period
Marchand
Zegras
P1
41.3%
40.0%
P2
35.0%
38.6%
P3
39.2%
38.2%
OT
37.5%
31.6%
Final 5 min
37.9%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
38.8%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%