Brady Tkachuk vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 55.0% vs Pageau 59.0% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 89.5%
Defensive zone
Pageau 89.6%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 52.0%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Tkachuk
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Tkachuk
Pageau
Last 5: Tkachuk 2-3 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Pageau
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
2
Tkachuk
Pageau
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
1
Tkachuk
Pageau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (153)
59.4% (726)
-4.5%
Power Play
59.4% (106)
69.0% (42)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
59.7% (221)
+40.3%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +40.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (77).
Tkachuk shoots left. Pageau is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Pageau
Home
50.8% (128)
58.4% (430)
Away
62.9% (132)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Tkachuk
Pageau
P1
56.6%
55.4%
P2
58.9%
61.8%
P3
56.2%
61.5%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
56.9%
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 03:12 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 11:48 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 11:13 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 06:41 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 18:11 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |