Scouting Report
Brett Howden holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 51.1% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 60.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 56.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 58.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Howden
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Howden
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Howden
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Howden
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (214)
44.7% (1,053)
+8.6%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
36.8% (95)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (10)
65.0% (20)
-45.0%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +45.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Howden is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (88).
Howden shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Howden
MacKinnon
Home
55.2% (96)
49.4% (553)
Away
48.9% (131)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Howden
MacKinnon
P1
42.0%
45.3%
P2
55.8%
42.7%
P3
55.6%
45.1%
Final 5 min
50.0%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
34.0%▼
48.0%
51.5%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2023 | 3 | 12:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 16:20 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 14:16 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 06:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |