Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Howden wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 49.8% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 66.8%
Defensive zone
Howden 69.2%
Neutral zone
Howden 55.7%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Howden
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Howden
MacKinnon
Last 10: Howden 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
3
Howden
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
2
1
Howden
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Howden
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (402)
49.7% (1,038)
+0.1%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
63.7% (157)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (34)
34.4% (32)
+12.7%
On penalty kill, Howden has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Howden is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Howden shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Howden
MacKinnon
Home
46.5% (217)
53.1% (618)
Away
52.7% (237)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Howden
MacKinnon
P1
51.4%
49.3%
P2
51.6%
53.0%
P3
48.5%
50.7%
OT
26.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.8%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | OT | 04:39 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 27, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 17:13 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 15:27 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 10:11 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:00 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 08:21 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 08:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 08:03 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 04:32 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |