Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 46.1% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 65.8%
Defensive zone
Howden 58.3%
Neutral zone
Howden 52.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Howden
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Howden
MacKinnon
Last 8: Howden 4-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Howden
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
1
0
Howden
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Howden
3
2
Howden
MacKinnon
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (330)
45.5% (1,190)
+1.8%
Power Play
22.2% (9)
56.4% (94)
-34.2%
Penalty Kill
25.9% (27)
40.0% (30)
-14.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +34.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Howden is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (123).
Howden shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Howden
MacKinnon
Home
44.3% (176)
47.8% (670)
Away
45.8% (190)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Howden
MacKinnon
P1
43.1%
45.3%
P2
43.1%
48.5%
P3
48.1%
45.0%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.6%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
34.0%▼
48.0%
45.1%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2024 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 19:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 17:08 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 1 | 19:46 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 14:43 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |