Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Miller 53.8% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Miller 64.5%
Defensive zone
Miller 86.7%
Neutral zone
Miller 72.3%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 75.7%
24.3%
75.7%
Nelson
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Nelson
Miller
Last 8: Nelson 5-3 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Miller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Miller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Miller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
55.5% (933)
-5.6%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
61.6% (73)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
45.8% (227)
-17.2%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Miller is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (769).
Home / Away
Nelson
Miller
Home
49.8% (458)
53.5% (578)
Away
49.0% (506)
54.7% (655)
By Period
Nelson
Miller
P1
50.1%
58.3%
P2
45.4%
53.5%
P3
52.7%
50.1%
OT
33.3%
70.6%
Final 5 min
47.1%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.4%
Miller
66.0%▬
66.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2022 | 3 | 07:53 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:19 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 9, 2022 | 2 | 01:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 9, 2022 | 2 | 00:51 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 9, 2022 | 1 | 03:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 9, 2022 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 9, 2022 | 1 | 03:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 9, 2022 | 1 | 00:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |