Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Miller 55.9% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Miller 66.7%
Defensive zone
Miller 80.2%
Neutral zone
Miller 67.3%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 72.2%
27.8%
72.2%
Nelson
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Miller
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Miller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Miller
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Miller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
56.3% (1,033)
-10.2%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
62.5% (253)
-28.0%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
47.4% (175)
-17.0%
On power play, Miller has a +28.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Miller is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Nelson
Miller
Home
48.7% (419)
58.6% (734)
Away
41.3% (368)
54.1% (727)
By Period
Nelson
Miller
P1
44.6%
57.1%
P2
47.3%
57.0%
P3
43.0%
54.7%
OT
100.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
39.4%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
45.2%
Miller
66.0%▬
66.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2024 | 3 | 15:04 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 15:59 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 12:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 13:00 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 12:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |