Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Miller 60.3% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Miller 57.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.6%
Neutral zone
Miller 53.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Nelson
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Nelson
Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
Nelson
Miller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Miller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
62.0% (582)
-11.1%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
65.9% (126)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
50.7% (71)
-7.3%
On even strength, Miller has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Miller is 62.3% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Home / Away
Nelson
Miller
Home
52.9% (654)
63.0% (416)
Away
48.9% (658)
60.1% (363)
By Period
Nelson
Miller
P1
48.4%
60.7%
P2
54.3%
63.9%
P3
50.5%
60.2%
OT
41.2%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
64.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
61.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:56 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:42 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 02:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |