Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs McBain 44.7% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 77.8%
Defensive zone
McBain 72.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 73.2%
73.2%
26.8%
Nelson
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
McBain
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
McBain
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
McBain
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
45.3% (675)
+1.6%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
50.0% (16)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
37.6% (149)
-12.6%
On penalty kill, McBain has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. McBain is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (502).
Home / Away
Nelson
McBain
Home
48.9% (521)
45.5% (437)
Away
45.5% (516)
42.4% (403)
By Period
Nelson
McBain
P1
45.9%
43.5%
P2
48.0%
44.0%
P3
48.0%
45.0%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.3%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
47.3%
McBain
52.0%▲
49.5%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2022 | 3 | 02:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 2 | 15:43 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 12:36 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 11:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |