Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.9% vs 51.0%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs McBain 50.9% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 59.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Nelson
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
McBain
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
McBain
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
McBain
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
52.5% (569)
-1.6%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
42.1% (19)
+17.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
36.2% (47)
+7.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. McBain is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (374).
Home / Away
Nelson
McBain
Home
52.9% (654)
52.4% (309)
Away
48.9% (658)
49.7% (326)
By Period
Nelson
McBain
P1
48.4%
54.0%
P2
54.3%
52.7%
P3
50.5%
46.5%
OT
41.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |