Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs McBain 46.7% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 76.4%
Defensive zone
McBain 50.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 59.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 66.8%
66.8%
33.2%
Nelson
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
7
(17 meetings)
10
7
Nelson
McBain
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
3
Nelson
McBain
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
McBain
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Nelson
McBain
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
48.1% (2,322)
-0.2%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
44.6% (56)
+10.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
35.6% (309)
+8.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. McBain is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,692).
Home / Away
Nelson
McBain
Home
50.1% (5,878)
49.1% (1,379)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
44.0% (1,308)
By Period
Nelson
McBain
P1
48.7%
47.1%
P2
48.6%
47.4%
P3
47.7%
45.4%
OT
45.6%
37.5%
Final 5 min
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:59 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 15:08 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 19:01 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 03:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 19:11 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 3 | 02:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 2 | 15:43 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 12:36 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 11:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |