Scouting Report
Nazem Kadri holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Kadri shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Kadri 49.0% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 52.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 68.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Nelson
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Nelson
Kadri
Last 6: Nelson 2-4 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
0
2
Nelson
Kadri
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Kadri
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
1
2
Nelson
Kadri
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
47.7% (975)
-1.6%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
54.0% (226)
-19.5%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
55.6% (9)
-25.2%
On penalty kill, Kadri has a +25.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Kadri is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (794).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kadri
Home
48.7% (419)
48.3% (621)
Away
41.3% (368)
49.6% (589)
By Period
Nelson
Kadri
P1
44.6%
48.1%
P2
47.3%
48.9%
P3
43.0%
49.8%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
45.2%
Kadri
48.0%▼
49.5%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 04:16 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 04:00 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 14:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 13:57 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 14:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 11:17 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |