Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.6%). Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (56% H2H, 34 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Kadri 48.6% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 33-31 in 64 meetings
Offensive zone
Kadri 56.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.7%
Neutral zone
Kadri 51.6%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Nelson
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
31
(64 meetings)
33
31
Nelson
Kadri
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
8
11
Nelson
Kadri
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
5
Nelson
Kadri
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
19
15
Nelson
Kadri
34 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
48.1% (12,555)
-0.2%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
53.0% (1,892)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
41.0% (293)
+2.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Kadri is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,402).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kadri
Home
50.1% (5,878)
49.1% (7,493)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
48.1% (7,250)
By Period
Nelson
Kadri
P1
48.7%
49.1%
P2
48.6%
48.7%
P3
47.7%
47.9%
OT
45.6%
49.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Kadri
32.0%▼
35.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | OT | 04:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 16:56 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 17:59 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 19, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 12:26 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 18:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 16:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 06:50 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 04:16 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 04:00 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 14:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 13:57 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 14:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 11:17 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 09:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:26 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |