Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Sundqvist shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Sundqvist 43.1% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 75.7%
Defensive zone
Sundqvist 62.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.0%
57.0%
43.0%
Nelson
Sundqvist
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Sundqvist
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Sundqvist
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sundqvist
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
41.3% (492)
+4.8%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
56.3% (16)
-21.8%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
43.2% (81)
-12.8%
On power play, Sundqvist has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sundqvist shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Sundqvist is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (419).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sundqvist
Home
48.7% (419)
43.3% (275)
Away
41.3% (368)
40.8% (314)
By Period
Nelson
Sundqvist
P1
44.6%
43.3%
P2
47.3%
41.8%
P3
43.0%
40.1%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
42.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
45.2%
Sundqvist
44.0%▼
49.5%
41.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Oskar Sundqvist |