Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Sundqvist 47.6% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 81.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 63.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 81.0%
81.0%
19.0%
Nelson
Sundqvist
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Sundqvist
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Sundqvist
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sundqvist
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
46.8% (301)
+4.1%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
80.0% (10)
-20.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
43.5% (85)
-0.1%
On power play, Sundqvist has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sundqvist shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Sundqvist is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sundqvist
Home
52.9% (654)
46.0% (189)
Away
48.9% (658)
47.8% (207)
By Period
Nelson
Sundqvist
P1
48.4%
44.7%
P2
54.3%
47.6%
P3
50.5%
48.6%
OT
41.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Sundqvist
44.0%▼
49.5%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |