Scouting Report
Stefan Noesen holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Noesen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Noesen 49.5% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 74.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 65.0%
65.0%
35.0%
Nelson
Noesen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Noesen
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Noesen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Noesen
0
1
Nelson
Noesen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Noesen
0
2
Nelson
Noesen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Noesen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Noesen
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
49.2% (59)
-2.3%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
50.0% (48)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
0.0% (1)
+25.0%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Noesen shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Noesen is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (78).
Home / Away
Nelson
Noesen
Home
48.9% (521)
46.5% (71)
Away
45.5% (516)
54.1% (37)
By Period
Nelson
Noesen
P1
45.9%
50.0%
P2
48.0%
47.1%
P3
48.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
47.3%
Noesen
46.0%▼
47.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 14:40 | Neutral | Stefan Noesen |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 13:10 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 12:54 | Defensive | Stefan Noesen |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 12:51 | Defensive | Stefan Noesen |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 07:06 | Offensive | Stefan Noesen |