Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kreider wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kreider 49.4% vs Larkin 52.1% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kreider 62.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 80.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 57.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 63.2%
36.8%
63.2%
Kreider
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kreider
Larkin
Last 5: Kreider 3-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kreider
2
0
Kreider
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Kreider
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kreider
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (125)
51.8% (903)
-2.2%
Power Play
33.3% (6)
56.0% (225)
-22.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
47.4% (76)
+2.6%
On power play, Larkin has a +22.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Kreider is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (84).
Kreider shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Home / Away
Kreider
Larkin
Home
45.3% (64)
55.6% (662)
Away
52.1% (73)
48.3% (542)
By Period
Kreider
Larkin
P1
51.1%
49.9%
P2
49.1%
52.7%
P3
48.5%
53.0%
OT
25.0%
68.0%
Final 5 min
35.5%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kreider
44.0%▲
37.5%
48.9%
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Chris Kreider |
| Feb 17, 2022 | OT | 00:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 08:20 | Offensive | Chris Kreider |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 04:35 | Defensive | Chris Kreider |