Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Kreider wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kreider 43.3% vs Larkin 52.7% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Kreider 75.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 86.3%
Neutral zone
Kreider 56.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Kreider
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Kreider
Larkin
Last 10: Kreider 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kreider
4
1
Kreider
Larkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
5
Kreider
Larkin
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kreider
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (705)
51.6% (9,056)
-8.1%
Power Play
36.6% (71)
58.6% (2,140)
-22.0%
Penalty Kill
31.3% (32)
50.2% (1,124)
-18.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Kreider is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (509).
Kreider shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Home / Away
Kreider
Larkin
Home
43.4% (417)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
41.4% (391)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
Kreider
Larkin
P1
41.1%
52.7%
P2
43.8%
53.1%
P3
43.0%
52.0%
OT
28.6%
58.4%
Final 5 min
46.2%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kreider
42.0%▲
38.0%
42.5%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:24 | Offensive | Chris Kreider |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2 | 07:40 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Chris Kreider |
| Feb 17, 2022 | OT | 00:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 08:20 | Offensive | Chris Kreider |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 04:35 | Defensive | Chris Kreider |
| Jan 31, 2020 | 1 | 16:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 2 | 08:39 | Offensive | Chris Kreider |
| Nov 6, 2019 | 2 | 03:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |