Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.3% vs Novak 42.5% (+12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 63.0%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 70.9%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 51.9%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Dvorak
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Dvorak
Novak
Last 6: Dvorak 3-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Dvorak
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
0
Dvorak
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Dvorak
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (804)
40.4% (408)
+13.8%
Power Play
54.2% (131)
45.5% (33)
+8.7%
On even strength, Dvorak has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Dvorak is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Dvorak shoots left. Novak is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Novak
Home
53.9% (497)
42.0% (212)
Away
53.3% (522)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Dvorak
Novak
P1
54.6%
41.9%
P2
53.2%
39.3%
P3
54.3%
42.1%
OT
34.8%
25.0%
Final 5 min
46.1%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
60.0%▲
53.5%
53.6%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 10:44 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 10:03 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:49 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:37 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 18:30 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 16:19 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |