Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.5% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 66.5%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 78.8%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 82.0%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 76.9%
23.1%
76.9%
Bedard
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Bedard
Zibanejad
Last 8: Bedard 5-3 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Zibanejad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
0
Bedard
Zibanejad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
1
2
Bedard
Zibanejad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (505)
53.3% (807)
-9.1%
Power Play
66.7% (36)
47.6% (42)
+19.1%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
46.3% (147)
+7.5%
On power play, Bedard has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Bedard is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Bedard shoots right. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Home / Away
Bedard
Zibanejad
Home
50.7% (223)
49.8% (466)
Away
42.6% (331)
54.0% (530)
By Period
Bedard
Zibanejad
P1
40.2%
52.9%
P2
49.2%
51.2%
P3
47.2%
51.7%
OT
57.1%
60.0%
Final 5 min
45.2%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
45.8%
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | 3 | 14:34 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 2 | 13:50 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 1 | 17:52 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 1 | 17:34 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 1 | 06:47 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 2 | 09:06 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |