Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dewar wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 45.7% vs McLeod 49.4% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 66.5%
Defensive zone
Dewar 60.5%
Neutral zone
Dewar 58.0%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Dewar
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Dewar
McLeod
Last 6: Dewar 3-3 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dewar
McLeod
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Dewar
McLeod
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dewar
2
1
Dewar
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (990)
50.3% (3,136)
-4.9%
Power Play
60.9% (23)
52.6% (272)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (180)
43.0% (582)
+0.3%
On power play, Dewar has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Dewar is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (800).
Dewar shoots left. McLeod is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,579).
Home / Away
Dewar
McLeod
Home
43.7% (575)
49.8% (2,033)
Away
46.9% (618)
49.0% (1,957)
By Period
Dewar
McLeod
P1
43.5%
50.6%
P2
48.1%
48.3%
P3
44.3%
49.8%
OT
0.0%
35.5%
Final 5 min
47.9%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
46.0%▬
46.5%
45.3%
McLeod
50.0%▬
50.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 10:09 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 1 | 01:32 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Dec 8, 2023 | 1 | 02:21 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 16:37 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 13:04 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 03:58 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |