Scouting Report
Nazem Kadri holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 40.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kadri shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Kadri 46.5% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 50.7%
Defensive zone
Mercer 67.7%
Neutral zone
Mercer 59.9%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Mercer
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Mercer
Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Kadri
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
0
1
Mercer
Kadri
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
0
1
Mercer
Kadri
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
45.7% (1,295)
-4.7%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
52.7% (146)
-17.0%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
34.8% (23)
+1.6%
On power play, Kadri has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. Mercer is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Mercer shoots right. Kadri is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (434).
Home / Away
Mercer
Kadri
Home
45.2% (126)
46.5% (725)
Away
35.1% (111)
46.0% (739)
By Period
Mercer
Kadri
P1
34.5%
47.2%
P2
43.4%
44.9%
P3
45.8%
46.3%
OT
0.0%
51.4%
Final 5 min
47.9%
46.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
40.5%
Kadri
48.0%▼
49.5%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 11:58 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 04:22 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:43 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |