Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Holloway wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Holloway 49.4% vs Hertl 57.5% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 84.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 75.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 70.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 75.5%
24.5%
75.5%
Holloway
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Holloway
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Holloway
1
0
Holloway
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Holloway
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (49)
58.7% (858)
-15.8%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
55.8% (285)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
62.9% (35)
+37.1%
On penalty kill, Holloway has a +37.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Holloway is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (40).
Holloway shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Holloway
Hertl
Home
54.5% (33)
60.1% (599)
Away
41.4% (29)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Holloway
Hertl
P1
43.8%
52.4%
P2
26.3%
63.9%
P3
66.7%
58.5%
Final 5 min
45.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Holloway
46.0%▲
44.0%
48.4%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 04:50 | Defensive | Dylan Holloway |