Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Holloway on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Holloway wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Holloway 45.9% vs Hertl 54.3% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 79.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 92.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 80.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 85.6%
14.4%
85.6%
Holloway
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Holloway
Hertl
Last 9: Holloway 6-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Holloway
2
1
Holloway
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Holloway
3
1
Holloway
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Holloway
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Holloway
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.5% (265)
53.9% (8,303)
-9.4%
Power Play
42.2% (45)
59.2% (1,995)
-17.0%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (4)
46.3% (806)
+28.7%
On penalty kill, Holloway has a +28.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Holloway is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Holloway shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Holloway
Hertl
Home
49.7% (151)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
39.9% (163)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Holloway
Hertl
P1
40.9%
53.6%
P2
37.1%
54.2%
P3
54.5%
55.3%
Final 5 min
45.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Holloway
46.0%▲
44.0%
44.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 04:50 | Defensive | Dylan Holloway |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 11:37 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 01:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 19:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 16:27 | Neutral | Dylan Holloway |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 12:49 | Offensive | Dylan Holloway |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 01:02 | Defensive | Dylan Holloway |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 13:55 | Offensive | Dylan Holloway |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 3 | 02:49 | Defensive | Dylan Holloway |