Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +15.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lindholm wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 55.3% vs Novak 42.5% (+15.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 77.0%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 89.5%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 87.1%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 82.6%
82.6%
17.4%
Lindholm
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Lindholm
Novak
Last 8: Lindholm 5-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
3
Lindholm
Novak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
0
Lindholm
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
0
Lindholm
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (766)
40.4% (408)
+14.4%
Power Play
62.3% (175)
45.5% (33)
+16.8%
On power play, Lindholm has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Lindholm is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Lindholm shoots right. Novak is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Novak
Home
56.6% (578)
42.0% (212)
Away
54.9% (455)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Lindholm
Novak
P1
55.2%
41.9%
P2
56.3%
39.3%
P3
56.3%
42.1%
OT
0.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
55.9%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 11:05 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 14:06 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 03:08 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |