Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lindholm on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Lindholm wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 53.9% vs Novak 43.0% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Lindholm leads 12-3 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Lindholm 83.2%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 98.4%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 96.5%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 92.5%
92.5%
7.5%
Lindholm
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
3
(15 meetings)
12
3
Lindholm
Novak
Last 10: Lindholm 7-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
2
3
Lindholm
Novak
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
3
0
Lindholm
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
7
0
Lindholm
Novak
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (8,549)
41.8% (1,568)
+12.0%
Power Play
59.4% (1,745)
51.5% (134)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (1,619)
50.0% (2)
-1.7%
On even strength, Lindholm has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Lindholm is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,165).
Lindholm shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Novak
Home
54.2% (5,980)
45.1% (831)
Away
53.6% (5,933)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Lindholm
Novak
P1
54.2%
43.7%
P2
54.5%
42.8%
P3
53.0%
41.1%
OT
53.6%
57.1%
Final 5 min
52.7%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
53.9%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 11:05 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 14:06 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 03:08 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 06:25 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 08:03 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 13:33 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 05:53 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 2 | 03:50 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |