Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +22.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lapierre wins 36.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lapierre 40.8% vs Sturm 59.0% (-22.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lapierre 80.6%
Defensive zone
Lapierre 51.7%
Neutral zone
Lapierre 79.1%
Result
Hendrix Lapierre favored at 74.5%
74.5%
25.5%
Lapierre
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Lapierre
Sturm
Last 5: Lapierre 1-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Lapierre
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Lapierre
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Lapierre
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lapierre
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
38.2% (275)
60.6% (708)
-22.4%
Power Play
0.0% (5)
61.1% (18)
-61.1%
On power play, Sturm has a +61.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Lapierre is 36.6% vs left-shot opponents (191).
Lapierre shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Lapierre
Sturm
Home
37.3% (153)
61.6% (451)
Away
37.8% (127)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Lapierre
Sturm
P1
46.1%
55.9%
P2
38.1%
58.9%
P3
25.9%
64.6%
Final 5 min
30.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lapierre
34.0%▼
40.5%
37.5%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2023 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 12:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 06:31 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 2 | 10:11 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |