Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +17.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lapierre wins 37.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lapierre 40.3% vs Sturm 56.1% (-17.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lapierre 91.5%
Defensive zone
Lapierre 69.0%
Neutral zone
Lapierre 82.3%
Result
Hendrix Lapierre favored at 80.6%
80.6%
19.4%
Lapierre
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Lapierre
Sturm
Last 7: Lapierre 1-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Lapierre
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Lapierre
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Lapierre
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lapierre
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (660)
57.1% (2,719)
-18.0%
Power Play
28.6% (14)
61.3% (62)
-32.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
51.0% (498)
-51.0%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +51.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Lapierre is 37.1% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Lapierre shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Lapierre
Sturm
Home
39.1% (366)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
38.5% (309)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Lapierre
Sturm
P1
47.2%
56.5%
P2
38.7%
54.9%
P3
29.3%
57.4%
Final 5 min
33.3%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lapierre
50.0%▲
41.0%
38.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 14:34 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 12:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 06:31 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 2 | 10:11 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |