Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +18.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lapierre wins 36.4% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lapierre 39.7% vs Sturm 56.2% (-18.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lapierre 92.8%
Defensive zone
Lapierre 72.5%
Neutral zone
Lapierre 84.3%
Result
Hendrix Lapierre favored at 82.9%
82.9%
17.1%
Lapierre
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Lapierre
Sturm
Last 7: Lapierre 1-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Lapierre
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Lapierre
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Lapierre
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lapierre
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
38.5% (600)
57.1% (2,681)
-18.6%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
61.3% (62)
-43.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
51.7% (482)
-51.7%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +51.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Lapierre is 36.4% vs left-shot opponents (423).
Lapierre shoots left. Sturm is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,159).
Home / Away
Lapierre
Sturm
Home
38.6% (334)
57.3% (1,595)
Away
37.4% (278)
55.5% (1,630)
By Period
Lapierre
Sturm
P1
46.5%
56.4%
P2
38.0%
55.1%
P3
28.3%
57.6%
Final 5 min
34.0%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lapierre
34.0%▼
40.5%
38.1%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 14:34 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 12:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 06:31 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 2 | 10:11 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |