Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Lapierre wins 34.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lapierre 42.9% vs Sturm 54.1% (-16.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lapierre 83.5%
Defensive zone
Lapierre 61.9%
Neutral zone
Lapierre 72.9%
Result
Hendrix Lapierre favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Lapierre
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Lapierre
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Lapierre
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lapierre
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
39.7% (204)
54.1% (233)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
59.5% (74)
-59.5%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +59.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Lapierre is 34.0% vs left-shot opponents (141).
Lapierre shoots left. Sturm is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Home / Away
Lapierre
Sturm
Home
44.3% (106)
54.4% (149)
Away
34.3% (102)
56.3% (158)
By Period
Lapierre
Sturm
P1
55.1%
57.1%
P2
39.2%
55.0%
P3
23.1%
53.7%
Final 5 min
37.5%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lapierre
34.0%▼
40.5%
39.4%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 14:34 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |