Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.2% vs Frost 51.1% (-13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 69.8%
Defensive zone
Hughes 63.1%
Neutral zone
Hughes 64.7%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
Hughes
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Hughes
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
2
Hughes
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Hughes
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (623)
50.3% (825)
-12.4%
Power Play
33.3% (33)
54.9% (204)
-21.6%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
50.0% (4)
-13.6%
On power play, Frost has a +21.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Hughes is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Hughes shoots left. Frost is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Home / Away
Hughes
Frost
Home
36.6% (314)
50.7% (489)
Away
38.5% (353)
51.7% (544)
By Period
Hughes
Frost
P1
36.4%
53.6%
P2
35.6%
47.8%
P3
41.8%
52.0%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
36.4%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
34.0%▼
36.5%
37.6%
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 06:54 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 14:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:48 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |