Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Hughes wins 34.7% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.5% vs Frost 49.9% (-13.9%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 83.8%
Defensive zone
Hughes 87.6%
Neutral zone
Hughes 91.5%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 87.6%
87.6%
12.4%
Hughes
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
13
(19 meetings)
6
13
Hughes
Frost
Last 10: Hughes 3-7 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
4
3
Hughes
Frost
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
5
Hughes
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
5
Hughes
Frost
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
35.9% (2,772)
49.0% (3,418)
-13.1%
Power Play
39.0% (223)
55.0% (600)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
52.8% (36)
-21.8%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Hughes is 34.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,858).
Hughes shoots left. Frost is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,654).
Home / Away
Hughes
Frost
Home
36.7% (1,596)
50.9% (1,943)
Away
35.3% (1,441)
49.0% (2,111)
By Period
Hughes
Frost
P1
36.3%
50.3%
P2
33.7%
51.0%
P3
38.3%
48.0%
OT
37.5%
64.5%
Final 5 min
34.4%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
34.0%▼
36.5%
36.0%
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 06:54 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 14:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:48 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 10:33 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 14:06 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 11:02 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 12:32 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 04:12 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:45 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:41 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 08:26 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 18:18 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 18:09 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 10:39 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |