Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Hughes wins 34.8% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.5% vs Frost 50.6% (-14.5%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 85.3%
Defensive zone
Hughes 87.6%
Neutral zone
Hughes 90.9%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 88.0%
88.0%
12.0%
Hughes
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
13
(19 meetings)
6
13
Hughes
Frost
Last 10: Hughes 3-7 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
4
3
Hughes
Frost
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
5
Hughes
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
5
Hughes
Frost
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,926)
49.7% (3,652)
-13.7%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
55.4% (632)
-16.6%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
55.0% (40)
-24.0%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +24.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Hughes is 34.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,948).
Hughes shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Home / Away
Hughes
Frost
Home
36.8% (1,681)
51.4% (2,101)
Away
35.3% (1,511)
49.8% (2,223)
By Period
Hughes
Frost
P1
36.9%
51.2%
P2
33.4%
51.3%
P3
38.2%
48.8%
OT
37.5%
64.9%
Final 5 min
34.1%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.1%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 06:54 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 14:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:48 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 10:33 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 14:06 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 11:02 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 12:32 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 04:12 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:45 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:41 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 08:26 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 18:18 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 18:09 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 10:39 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |