Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs McCarron 52.1% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 78.5%
Defensive zone
McCarron 74.4%
Neutral zone
McBain 51.3%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
McBain
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
McBain
McCarron
Last 8: McBain 4-4 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
McCarron
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
1
0
McBain
McCarron
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
3
McBain
McCarron
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (569)
52.8% (697)
-0.3%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
18.2% (11)
+23.9%
Penalty Kill
36.2% (47)
52.6% (211)
-16.4%
On power play, McBain has a +23.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. McBain is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (261).
McBain shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
Home / Away
McBain
McCarron
Home
52.4% (309)
52.8% (477)
Away
49.7% (326)
51.8% (442)
By Period
McBain
McCarron
P1
54.0%
56.2%
P2
52.7%
52.4%
P3
46.5%
48.7%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 07:42 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 17:33 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 14:47 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 11:13 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 03:43 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 02:11 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:51 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:57 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |