Scouting Report
Jake Guentzel holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.7% vs Cates 43.2% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 94.0%
Defensive zone
Cates 73.9%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 66.6%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 77.0%
77.0%
23.0%
Guentzel
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Guentzel
Cates
Last 8: Guentzel 6-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
6
0
Guentzel
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Guentzel
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (715)
44.1% (2,786)
+2.3%
Power Play
46.6% (298)
42.9% (254)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (44)
34.9% (373)
+8.3%
On penalty kill, Guentzel has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Guentzel is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (656).
Guentzel shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Cates
Home
48.9% (583)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
43.2% (474)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Guentzel
Cates
P1
48.0%
44.5%
P2
45.5%
43.7%
P3
46.0%
41.2%
OT
33.3%
29.4%
Final 5 min
43.1%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
46.4%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 19:05 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 15:56 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:47 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 06:19 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |