Scouting Report
Jake Guentzel holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.5% vs Cates 43.0% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 89.8%
Defensive zone
Cates 83.0%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 53.2%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 71.6%
71.6%
28.4%
Guentzel
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Guentzel
Cates
Last 8: Guentzel 6-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
6
0
Guentzel
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Guentzel
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (601)
43.8% (2,596)
+2.8%
Power Play
45.6% (259)
43.8% (224)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (34)
35.2% (364)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Guentzel has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Guentzel is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (548).
Guentzel shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,180).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Cates
Home
49.2% (472)
43.5% (1,590)
Away
42.7% (422)
42.1% (1,594)
By Period
Guentzel
Cates
P1
49.2%
44.5%
P2
44.3%
43.2%
P3
45.4%
40.9%
OT
16.7%
30.3%
Final 5 min
41.0%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
46.0%▼
48.0%
46.1%
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 19:05 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 15:56 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:47 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 06:19 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |