Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Steven Stamkos
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.7% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 54.8%
Defensive zone
Pageau 95.0%
Neutral zone
Pageau 85.0%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 87.0%
87.0%
13.0%
Pageau
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Pageau
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
1
Pageau
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
59.6% (711)
49.3% (670)
+10.3%
Power Play
64.0% (114)
53.7% (121)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (163)
33.3% (3)
+23.1%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Pageau is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (225).
Pageau shoots right. Stamkos is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Home / Away
Pageau
Stamkos
Home
59.3% (506)
54.0% (400)
Away
60.0% (482)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Pageau
Stamkos
P1
56.8%
48.6%
P2
64.4%
54.5%
P3
56.9%
45.4%
OT
75.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
61.1%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
59.6%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 01:03 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |