Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Steven Stamkos
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on neutral-zone draws (64% H2H, 33 meetings). Pageau wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Stamkos 51.1% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 42-36 in 78 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 59.1%
Defensive zone
Pageau 84.0%
Neutral zone
Pageau 70.3%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 63.9%
63.9%
36.1%
Pageau
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
42
-
36
(78 meetings)
42
36
Pageau
Stamkos
Last 10: Pageau 7-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
9
17
Pageau
Stamkos
26 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
12
7
Pageau
Stamkos
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
21
12
Pageau
Stamkos
33 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (9,525)
50.5% (9,825)
+5.3%
Power Play
57.0% (1,008)
55.2% (1,729)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,077)
49.6% (827)
+0.0%
On even strength, Pageau has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Pageau is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,739).
Pageau shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,601).
Home / Away
Pageau
Stamkos
Home
56.3% (6,267)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Pageau
Stamkos
P1
54.7%
49.2%
P2
56.3%
52.7%
P3
53.5%
50.9%
OT
54.4%
54.3%
Final 5 min
53.9%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
54.9%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 19:29 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 01:03 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 00:47 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 19:55 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:42 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 16:45 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:10 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 11:58 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 12:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 09:40 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 17:54 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 16:17 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 16:58 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 04:58 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 04:55 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |