Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Steven Stamkos
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Pageau wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 59.0% vs Stamkos 55.4% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 68.1%
Defensive zone
Pageau 77.2%
Neutral zone
Pageau 65.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 68.1%
31.9%
68.1%
Pageau
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Pageau
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
59.4% (726)
57.1% (368)
+2.3%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
55.2% (96)
+13.8%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
50.0% (10)
+9.7%
On power play, Pageau has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Pageau is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Pageau shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Pageau
Stamkos
Home
58.4% (430)
53.9% (230)
Away
61.0% (559)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Pageau
Stamkos
P1
55.4%
56.7%
P2
61.8%
54.1%
P3
61.5%
59.2%
OT
75.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
63.1%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 19:29 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |