Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +19.7% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Hayes 38.0% (+19.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 64.7%
Defensive zone
Hayes 60.5%
Neutral zone
Hayes 62.2%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 62.4%
37.6%
62.4%
Pavelski
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Pavelski
Hayes
Last 6: Pavelski 2-4 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
Pavelski
Hayes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Hayes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (785)
37.1% (642)
+17.9%
Power Play
62.7% (201)
32.1% (28)
+30.6%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (161)
0.0% (11)
+52.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +52.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Pavelski shoots right. Hayes is 33.2% vs right-shot opponents (262).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Hayes
Home
58.1% (580)
36.7% (354)
Away
53.8% (567)
35.8% (327)
By Period
Pavelski
Hayes
P1
53.4%
33.6%
P2
58.6%
38.3%
P3
56.4%
37.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
36.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2014 | 2 | 06:46 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 19, 2014 | 2 | 06:38 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 19, 2014 | 2 | 06:29 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 19, 2014 | 2 | 03:09 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 19, 2014 | 2 | 02:52 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 19, 2014 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |