Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Hayes 56.3% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 53.0%
Defensive zone
Hayes 59.8%
Neutral zone
Hayes 53.0%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Pavelski
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Pavelski
Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Hayes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
Pavelski
Hayes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
56.6% (724)
-5.1%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
57.0% (79)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
65.7% (35)
-37.1%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +37.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Hayes is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Hayes
Home
53.1% (339)
58.0% (405)
Away
49.2% (356)
56.1% (433)
By Period
Pavelski
Hayes
P1
53.8%
54.7%
P2
47.8%
55.7%
P3
50.2%
60.2%
OT
71.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 07:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 04:58 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 18:43 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |