Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Hayes 47.8% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 19-18 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 65.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 54.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 66.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Pavelski
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
18
(37 meetings)
19
18
Pavelski
Hayes
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
8
6
Pavelski
Hayes
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
5
8
Pavelski
Hayes
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
4
Pavelski
Hayes
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
47.6% (6,698)
+6.0%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
51.7% (702)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
45.4% (696)
+5.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,970).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Hayes
Home
56.4% (5,998)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
47.4% (4,114)
By Period
Pavelski
Hayes
P1
53.5%
47.5%
P2
55.2%
47.7%
P3
53.9%
47.9%
OT
52.3%
54.1%
Final 5 min
54.4%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 07:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 04:58 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 18:43 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 13, 2022 | 1 | 08:00 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 03:14 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 3 | 00:32 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 3 | 19:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 3 | 17:59 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 2 | 15:18 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 2 | 00:56 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 1 | 16:52 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 1 | 01:18 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2 | 05:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 3 | 19:34 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 3 | 15:30 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |