Scouting Report
Joe Veleno holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Veleno on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 49.2% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Veleno 51.7%
Defensive zone
Veleno 61.2%
Neutral zone
Veleno 62.0%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Veleno
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Veleno
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
2
1
Veleno
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
1
0
Veleno
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (531)
45.5% (1,190)
+2.9%
Power Play
56.3% (64)
56.4% (94)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (27)
40.0% (30)
+4.4%
On penalty kill, Veleno has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Veleno is 48.4% vs right-shot opponents (219).
Veleno shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Veleno
MacKinnon
Home
48.8% (289)
47.8% (670)
Away
49.2% (333)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Veleno
MacKinnon
P1
46.1%
45.3%
P2
50.9%
48.5%
P3
49.7%
45.0%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.7%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
50.0%▬
50.5%
49.0%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:50 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 10:38 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |