Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.1% vs 46.8%). Look for Veleno on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 47.2% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Veleno leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 61.9%
Defensive zone
Veleno 61.2%
Neutral zone
Veleno 56.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Veleno
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Veleno
MacKinnon
Last 10: Veleno 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
5
Veleno
MacKinnon
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
4
0
Veleno
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Veleno
3
0
Veleno
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (2,317)
46.1% (11,264)
+1.2%
Power Play
51.0% (98)
53.2% (1,421)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (88)
42.8% (502)
-6.4%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Veleno is 49.0% vs right-shot opponents (880).
Veleno shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
Home / Away
Veleno
MacKinnon
Home
45.3% (1,136)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
48.6% (1,367)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Veleno
MacKinnon
P1
47.9%
47.4%
P2
47.7%
46.6%
P3
45.9%
46.1%
OT
35.7%
48.4%
Final 5 min
48.7%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.1%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 03:02 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 02:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 11:01 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:32 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 12:40 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 07:54 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:50 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 10:38 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 18:14 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 10:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 1 | 10:49 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |