Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.1%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 50.9% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 73.1%
Defensive zone
Veleno 66.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Veleno
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Veleno
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Veleno
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
1
0
Veleno
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (278)
49.7% (1,038)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (29)
34.4% (32)
+3.5%
On penalty kill, Veleno has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Veleno is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Veleno shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Veleno
MacKinnon
Home
49.6% (123)
53.1% (618)
Away
52.2% (184)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Veleno
MacKinnon
P1
54.1%
49.3%
P2
48.8%
53.0%
P3
52.6%
50.7%
OT
25.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
60.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
52.0%▬
51.5%
51.1%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 03:02 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 02:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |