Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Veleno wins 54.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 47.4% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 80.3%
Defensive zone
Veleno 58.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 56.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Veleno
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Veleno
MacKinnon
Last 5: Veleno 3-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Veleno
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
2
0
Veleno
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (420)
49.2% (1,266)
-2.1%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
54.9% (193)
+45.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
49.1% (55)
-24.1%
On power play, Veleno has a +45.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Veleno is 54.6% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Veleno shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Veleno
MacKinnon
Home
47.8% (201)
50.9% (740)
Away
46.1% (228)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Veleno
MacKinnon
P1
48.8%
50.9%
P2
47.9%
51.8%
P3
44.2%
47.1%
Final 5 min
47.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
50.0%▬
50.5%
46.9%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 11:01 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:32 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 12:40 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 07:54 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |