Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Veleno on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Veleno wins 43.6% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 43.5% vs Bjugstad 48.0% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Veleno 60.2%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 79.7%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 66.2%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Veleno
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Veleno
Bjugstad
Last 5: Veleno 3-2 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
2
1
Veleno
Bjugstad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Veleno
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (617)
49.4% (867)
-6.5%
Power Play
37.5% (16)
56.0% (25)
-18.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (18)
40.7% (216)
-7.4%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Veleno is 43.6% vs right-shot opponents (202).
Veleno shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (796).
Home / Away
Veleno
Bjugstad
Home
40.7% (327)
46.5% (480)
Away
44.4% (324)
48.9% (628)
By Period
Veleno
Bjugstad
P1
43.2%
48.7%
P2
42.0%
45.6%
P3
42.4%
49.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.4%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
50.0%▬
50.5%
42.5%
Bjugstad
44.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 10:59 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 11:55 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 02:29 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 02:19 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 10:09 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |