Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Aho 50.5% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 65.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 69.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 74.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 70.2%
70.2%
29.8%
Tavares
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Tavares
Aho
Last 9: Tavares 6-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
2
Tavares
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
50.5% (878)
+7.2%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
53.5% (144)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
44.3% (61)
+7.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Tavares
Aho
Home
57.4% (636)
53.8% (571)
Away
57.2% (612)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Tavares
Aho
P1
57.5%
49.0%
P2
56.9%
51.7%
P3
57.5%
50.3%
OT
57.1%
58.8%
Final 5 min
56.9%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 13:24 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:39 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 07:08 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 05:24 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:08 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 10:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 01:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:03 | Neutral | John Tavares |